Caribbean consumers could face higher prices and thinner shelves as up to US$10 billion in CARICOM imports face exposure to transit limits at the dry-season-strained Panama Canal, a regional business group warns.

Preliminary analysis by the CARICOM Private Sector Organisation (CPSO) found that between US$8 billion and US$10 billion of the Caribbean Community's (CARICOM's) annual imports — roughly one quarter to one third of the Region's non-fuel import bill — is exposed to transit restrictions now taking effect at the canal. The CPSO is advising importers and governments to plan for higher landed costs and thinner inventories through the 2027 dry season, a release said.

The Panama Canal Authority's Advisory A-29-2026 caps daily transits at 34 vessels for booking dates from September 4, falling to 32 from September 15. Rainfall in the canal watershed has run 34 per cent below the historical average from May through August, with inflows 44 per cent below. The Authority has warned that the expected intensity of the 2026 to 2027 El Niño could further reduce water availability during the next dry season, from January to April 2027.

The cost signals are already visible. A priority auction slot recently fetched US$5.3 million, reported as the highest bid ever recorded, and CMA CGM, MSC and Hapag-Lloyd have each announced per-TEU surcharges on canal-dependent routes, with further increases expected as draft limits tighten.

CPSO Chief Executive Officer and Technical Director Dr Patrick Antoine said auction premiums and low-water surcharges do not stay on the carriers' books.

"They are passed down the chain to importers, to distributors, and ultimately to the Caribbean consumer. When slot scarcity forces carriers to reroute or rationalise port calls, small Caribbean markets are typically the first to lose frequency and the last to regain it," he said.

Underpinning that vulnerability is the Region's heavy reliance on imports. CARICOM economies are among the most import-dependent in the world, with food, manufactured goods and construction inputs reaching regional shelves largely on transshipment networks routed through or priced off the Panama Canal. The CPSO estimate covers both cargo transiting the Canal directly, between US$4.5 billion and US$7 billion a year, and Canal-transited cargo consolidated through United States ports before onward shipment to the Region.

The risk to consumers is twofold: availability, through longer lead times and thinner inventories; and price, as surcharges and longer voyages feed into landed costs.

Compounding the pressure, the Canal is not the only constraint. With shipping through the Strait of Hormuz also disrupted, two of the world's critical maritime trade corridors are under pressure simultaneously — one by climate and one by conflict — lifting freight rates, war-risk premiums and fuel costs globally. For petroleum-importing CARICOM states, that adds further strain on electricity, transport and food prices at the same time.

The CPSO presented its Derisking CSME Imports methodology to the CARICOM Heads of Government Breakfast Meeting in Saint Lucia in July 2026. The framework maps the Community's exposure to extra-regional supply shocks and identifies, product by product, where intra-regional production and alternative supply corridors can substitute for vulnerable long-haul imports.